Forum    Search    FAQ

Board index » Chat Forums » Political Opinions and Opinionated Posts




Post new topic  Reply to topic  [ 23 posts ] 
 
Author Message
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:11 am 
Moderator of DOOM!
Moderator of DOOM!
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 15851
Location: Yes.
So, two crucial parliamentary votes later (one in Greece, one in Germany) and there's a new kerfuffle. It seems the Greeks actually did do their homework, and made plans to issue a new Drachma in the event things went terminally sour. The Germans are all upset about this, seeing further evidence of Greek perfidy. Demands of investigations, etc, etc; more excuses not to take a haircut.

Y'know, this morality tale the northern Europeans are telling themselves about all of this is rather counterproductive. Absent debt relief, anyone in Greece's position must and will default, full stop. This is Macroeconomics 101. Morality doesn't enter into it. Now to be fair, it's understandable that the Finns would see belt tightening and fanatic devotion to paying off debts as economic absolutes; if anyone has earned the right to be wrong in this way about this issue, it's them. The Germans and their fellow travellers? The German right are apparently still the same folks who told themselves that they lost World War I because they were stabbed in the back. One suspects they see World War II in much the same way the Bourbons saw the French Revolution; a combination of forgetting nothing and learning nothing.

Oh, well. At least the current Greek government seems bright enough to make leaving the Euro work, even if they aren't quite wise enough to leave. What with other political parties around Europe pitching leaving the Euro now, it may not even be the Greeks who go first. But go they sooner or later will.

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:21 pm 
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Sun May 26, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 2266
Location: Vienna, Austria, EU
I also don't understand the big deal about the plan. Admittedly it seems to have over the top cloak and dagger stuff, but frankly the trustworthyness of Geek civil servants is often put in question, so not involving them in your secret plans is understandable, even if it is bad form.

The northern European problem mainly is: "If the Greeks default, what keeps them from going into unsustainable debt again and we start at square 1 again?" "We will not make a bailout next time" does not work, because the original plan was, that there are no bail outs, period. AFAIK there is no viable plan, how the rest of europe can distance itself (including private to big to fail banks) from a Greek default. So it is a safe bet, that if we land at square 1 again, there will be an other bailout.

While a bailout that comes under "we landed in a mess, but we have a plan how to prevent the same mess in the future" can be somewhat sold to the public, "bailouts just have to happen at some intervals" pretty much can't in northern europe.

So the plan for the time being is, to pretty much delay bancruptcy by restructuring Greek debts, to keep Greek goverments on a short leash, while implementing whatever the German goverment and allies think, will help the Greek ecconomy.

To be fair, the policy the German goverment dictates Greece is basically the same that they run Germany with, only that it has larger effects in Greece, then in Germany because they try to lift larger stuff with the same lever. Now i am not a conservative and i don't think their policy is good and that it works in Germany is more incidental then a result of their policies. But i don't see more then "It worked for us, so it is good enough for you" paternalism here*.

Who is pitching for leaving the Euro, who has the potential to become strong enough to do so? There is the FN in France, but they are full in "We don't get into goverment anyway, so we can demand anything we want" populism mode AFAIK. I am pretty sure they will revise a lot, if they actually get into goverment. In Germany Euro opponents would have a grand victory if they get something like 15%. I don't know if Podemos in Spain is actually for leaving the Euro but i don't expect them to get strong enough to build an anti-euro goverment.

The majority position throughout europe seems to be "We want to keep the Euro, and someone else should fix the problems with it".

* I know, politicans can always have hidden agendas

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:57 pm 
Moderator of DOOM!
Moderator of DOOM!
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 15851
Location: Yes.
arcosh wrote:
The northern European problem mainly is: "If the Greeks default, what keeps them from going into unsustainable debt again and we start at square 1 again?"

To which the obvious answer is 'if someone lends money to Greece under those circumstances, on their own head be it; they saw what happened to the last batch of deliberately incompetent lenders'.

arcosh wrote:
To be fair, the policy the German goverment dictates Greece is basically the same that they run Germany with...

No, the Germans never did what they want Greece to do. They never toughed it out by austerity at all; the German finance minister even admitted that they reintegrated the Ossies by exporting the cost to the Turks and Arabs rather than any fiscal device of their own. Ok, he actually said that Germany ran a large trade surplus against Turkey and the Near East during those years when accused of exporting the cost to the rest of Europe by the Greeks; but the point is the same. The Germans are wrapped up in a comfortable delusion of their own moral superiority again, and are now trying to condemn the Greeks to live that myth for them. And it can't possibly be done; unless the Greeks get a massive write down of the debt, or their own currency which is completely immune to German hard money demands (which will let them export the cost the way Germany actually did), then they can never even meet the interest payments.

And do remember; it was the hard money fetish of the German government in 1933-34 which made things so bad that the National Socialists and their promise of work and bread looked good, not the hyperinflation of the 20s which was long since over with.
arcosh wrote:
Who is pitching for leaving the Euro, who has the potential to become strong enough to do so? There is the FN in France, but they are full in "We don't get into goverment anyway, so we can demand anything we want" populism mode AFAIK. I am pretty sure they will revise a lot, if they actually get into goverment. In Germany Euro opponents would have a grand victory if they get something like 15%. I don't know if Podemos in Spain is actually for leaving the Euro but i don't expect them to get strong enough to build an anti-euro goverment.

See the above comment about the folks promising work and bread. Things will never get better (and can easily get much worse) in the Euro periphery until the hard money folks controlling the currency lose power over that periphery; which means eventually someone otherwise unacceptable promising to revoke the Treaty of Vers...er...leave the Euro will seem very reasonable indeed. Hungary is far from the only country in Europe which can go down that path again.

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:02 pm 
Moderator of DOOM!
Moderator of DOOM!
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 15851
Location: Yes.
Another Greek election looms. The anti-austerity party will now, ostensibly, be running as an austerity party. Will someone finally take the bull by the horns and run as an anti-Euro party, and if so, how they will do? I think we may find out.

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:31 am 
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Sun May 26, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 2266
Location: Vienna, Austria, EU
The "German" position is, that when their ecconomy had not looked well, they did austerity and since they have done it in time it was little compared to what the Greeks need to do now. The Schröder reforms were indeed an austerity program, that also did have a high political cost for thoose who implemented it.

I am not agreeing to their position and i don't think that "whoever has ecconomic problems should try to compete by social-dumping" is a good ecconomic policy. But while i don't agree to them, i do think their position is consistent.

It's also quite understandable, why Greeks and other Southern Europeans do not want to leave the Euro. There in the pre-Euro time goverments often used currency devaluation as austerity through the back door trick. People there liked it better to be paid in D-Marks, then in their own currency. Now they got a D-Mark with a different name. Even if times are hard now, going back is not really a good prospect either.

From what i have heared about polls for the Greek election SYRIZIA (main part of the current goverment) is leading with something in the high 2x% followed by the ND (conservative old system party). There is some disagreement how large the lead actually is. There is an anti-Euro splitoff from SYRIZIA, that is somewhere in single didgits. There is also the KKE (communists, they always were anti Euro), that had around 5% in the last election, i haven't heard anything about how they do in polls.

As to why should anyone lend money to the Greeks if they default?

Other EU countries have taken over Greek debts the last time Greece ran into a problem, even if it was against euro rules, because they feared instability too much. If the Euro zone had in 2008 followed their rules and said "Sucks to be a lender and sucks to be Greece but that is not our problem", then their might be all sorts of other problems, but future lenders would not act under the assumption that Greece gets bailed out next time. But that was not what had happened. So lend Greece money and expect other EU countries to pay back seems to be while not a risk free, still a rational strategy for lenders.

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:16 pm 
Moderator of DOOM!
Moderator of DOOM!
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 15851
Location: Yes.
arcosh wrote:
The "German" position is, that when their ecconomy had not looked well, they did austerity and since they have done it in time it was little compared to what the Greeks need to do now. The Schröder reforms were indeed an austerity program, that also did have a high political cost for thoose who implemented it.

Except that it was and is a sham. Germany paid it's bills by running a massive trade surplus, not by tightening it's belt (though they did go through the motions of the latter). Not to put too fine a point on it, the Turks and the Arabs paid Germany's bills for them. Now the Germans want the Greeks to emulate their example? Fine. But exactly who is Greece supposed to export their problems to with Germany keeping their products noncompetitive?

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 9:58 pm 
Moderator of DOOM!
Moderator of DOOM!
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 15851
Location: Yes.
Greece is about to vote. A coalition government seems likely, though led by who and based on what remain to be seen. The overall situation is not likely to improve. We now return you to your regularly scheduled web crawl.

Top 
   
 Post Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2015 5:11 pm 
User avatar
Offline
Joined: Sun May 26, 2002 12:00 am
Posts: 2266
Location: Vienna, Austria, EU
Given how much has changed, the elections brought surprisingly small changes. Syrizia (the pro Euro part) got pretty much the same results as in the last election. The other parties mostly got close results too. The anti Euro splitoff of Syrizia (LAE) closely missed the 3% boundary. There is one additional party in the parliament, that seems to be some sort of center right party.

So far that seems to be the most easily readable page with results: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_September_2015

Top 
   
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
Post new topic  Reply to topic  [ 23 posts ] 

Board index » Chat Forums » Political Opinions and Opinionated Posts


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: